Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
